WASCommanders
0-1
27
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
74°F
3 mph
20
LARRams
1-0
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
74°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
17
0
7
27
Rams
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
332
Total Plays
68
49
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.04
Passing Yards
156
235
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.20
Rushing Yards
229
97
Rush Attempts
39
22
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.98
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-3.56
-1.21
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
25
75
Penalty EPA
-2.69
-5.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
55.3
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
29
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
8
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U