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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ chargers week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-2
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
17
LACChargers
2-2
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
3
0
10
20
Chargers
7
0
3
7
17

Spread

DAL logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
342
272
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.08
Passing Yards
246
219
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.01
Rushing Yards
96
53
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+2.28
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-8.93
-0.82
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
85
79
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-10.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+71.0
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
+1.1
Final Difference
-17.6
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
12/24
6.2
90
12/29
0.9
58
01/08
-7.9
6
01/16
12.3
98
01/22
-2.0
38
09/10
-3.1
29
09/17
7.1
91
09/24
-1.1
42
10/01
3.5
73
10/08
-9.1
5
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
12/11
4.4
83
12/18
-5.0
18
12/26
-4.4
21
01/01
5.3
86
01/08
4.6
83
01/14
-1.4
43
09/10
2.1
64
09/17
2.4
67
09/24
13.5
99
10/01
-1.7
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Cowboys logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16

EPA

EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
7
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Chargers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
31
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
13
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
6
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
P
U
01/08
-20
L
L
U
01/16
17
W
W
U
01/22
-7
L
L
U
09/10
40
W
W
U
09/17
20
W
W
O
09/24
-12
L
L
O
10/01
35
W
W
U
10/08
-32
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/18
3
W
P
U
12/26
17
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
W
O
01/14
-1
L
L
O
09/10
-2
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/24
4
W
W
U
10/01
7
W
P
U