DALCowboys
3-2
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
017
LACChargers
2-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
3
0
10
20
Chargers
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
272
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.6
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.08
Passing Yards
246
219
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.01
Rushing Yards
96
53
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+2.28
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-26
-8
Sack EPA
-8.93
-0.82
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
85
79
Penalty EPA
-8.80
-10.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+71.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+1.6
Final Difference
-18.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U