MIADolphins
3-7
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
4 mph
17
NYJJets
2-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
0
7
10
24
Jets
7
0
7
3
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
380
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
5.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
278
Comp/Att
27/34(79%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.02
Rushing Yards
115
102
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.81
-6.30
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-8.03
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
62
48
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-7.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,331
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U