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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-7
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
4 mph
17
NYJJets
2-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
0
7
10
24
Jets
7
0
7
3
17

Spread

MIA logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
388
380
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
5.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
278
Comp/Att
27/34(79%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.02
Rushing Yards
115
102
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.81
-6.30
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-8.03
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
62
48
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-7.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,332
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
12/06
2.8
65
12/13
1.4
54
12/20
0.7
50
12/26
-4.3
17
01/03
-0.4
43
09/12
-2.0
38
09/19
-7.9
8
10/17
4.8
83
10/24
5.6
86
10/31
-2.9
32
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
-7.6
9
09/29
3.6
76
10/06
-4.5
23
10/13
-4.6
22
10/17
-9.3
6
10/27
-3.7
27
10/11
-4.4
17
10/18
-10.4
3
11/09
4.7
77
11/22
-3.3
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
29
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
13
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
1
W
W
U
09/19
-35
L
L
U
09/26
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-10
L
L
O
10/10
-28
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
10/31
-15
L
P
U
11/07
8
W
W
U
11/11
12
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-19
L
L
U
09/26
-26
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/24
-41
L
L
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/04
-15
L
L
O
11/14
-28
L
L
O