PHIEagles
-
30
TBD
FedExField
67°F
5 mph
17
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
9
3
5
24
Commanders
0
8
3
0
11
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
264
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.28
Passing Yards
300
200
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.36
Rushing Yards
58
64
Rush Attempts
24
17
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-7.85
-17.49
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-9
-40
Sack EPA
-3.03
-16.27
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
76
15
Penalty EPA
-9.05
-1.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model51.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
-52.9
Final Difference
-10.3
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U