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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ jets week 3, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
0-2
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
7 mph
17
NYJJets
2-0
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
15
0
0
18
Jets
0
7
0
10
17

Spread

PHI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
231
323
Total Plays
67
75
Yards / Play
3.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.28
Passing Yards
108
276
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
35/58(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.32
Rushing Yards
123
47
Rush Attempts
38
16
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
29%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.62
-16.39
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-2.07
-0.99
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
21
53
Penalty EPA
-2.51
-5.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
+59.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
12/30
2.3
64
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
10/13
4.1
78
10/20
0.4
53
09/14
2.5
68
09/20
-2.9
29
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
-4.5
23
10/09
-2.9
30
10/20
2.8
70
10/26
-4.2
25
11/02
-2.7
31
11/30
15.5
100
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
-4.4
24
09/13
0.1
51
09/21
2.1
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Jets Defense
Eagles logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2

EPA

EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
16
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
30
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Jets Offense vs Eagles Defense
Jets logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32

EPA

EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
15
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
3
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
24
W
W
O
11/16
-33
L
L
O
11/23
19
W
W
O
11/27
23
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
P
12/28
8
W
W
O
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-14
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
U
11/24
-35
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-6
L
L
O
12/14
5
W
W
U
12/21
-1
L
W
U
12/28
13
W
W
O
09/13
21
W
W
O
09/21
13
W
W
U