PHIEagles
4-6
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
045
DETLions
3-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
0
7
14
Lions
7
17
14
7
45
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
430
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.28
Passing Yards
159
322
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.60
Rushing Yards
68
108
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
9
22
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.61
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-40
-15
Sack EPA
-13.99
-3.14
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
29
Penalty EPA
--
-4.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+82.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-46.7
Market Regression
+48.5
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-46.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
30
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
28
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
17
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U