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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ lions week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-6
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
45
DETLions
3-7
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
0
7
14
Lions
7
17
14
7
45

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
227
430
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.28
Passing Yards
159
322
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.60
Rushing Yards
68
108
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
9
22
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.61
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-40
-15
Sack EPA
-13.99
-3.14
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
29
Penalty EPA
--
-4.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+83.5
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-46.7
Market Regression
+49.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-46.7
Value
Ptile
12/30
-5.7
14
11/10
2.6
69
11/16
-1.3
41
11/23
0.2
51
11/27
4.0
77
12/07
-5.0
20
12/14
-8.5
7
12/20
5.1
83
12/28
0.3
51
11/22
-4.3
19
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
09/13
-1.6
39
09/20
2.4
67
09/27
-2.5
33
10/05
1.3
60
10/11
-5.8
12
10/18
9.1
96
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
-8.2
4
11/15
2.0
65
11/22
1.0
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Eagles logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
16
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
30
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Lions logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
17
28
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
17
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
19
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
7
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
L
U
10/11
22
W
W
O
10/19
20
W
W
U
10/25
-11
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-5
L
L
O
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-12
L
L
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-25
L
L
O
10/18
3
W
L
O
10/25
-9
L
L
O
11/01
-35
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/22
5
W
W
U