ATLFalcons
0-2
27
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
023
SEASeahawks
1-1
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
7
10
0
27
Seahawks
10
10
3
0
23
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
420
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
7.1
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.18
Passing Yards
207
308
Comp/Att
13/20(65%)
32/44(73%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.75
+0.27
Rushing Yards
179
112
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
17
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.74
-0.88
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-17
Sack EPA
-4.34
-3.46
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.6
Net QB Adjustment
-1.7
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
25.9
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U