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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ titans week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-3
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
7 mph
28
TENTitans
2-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
6
14
23
Titans
7
7
7
7
28

Spread

TEN logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
35

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
342
375
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.01
Passing Yards
202
226
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.20
Rushing Yards
140
149
Rush Attempts
26
36
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.32
-6.43
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-44
-12
Sack EPA
-12.68
-2.53
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
15
53
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-4.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+63.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-43.0
Home QB Adjustment
-43.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-23.9
Final Difference
-8.6
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

D. Ridder headshot

D. Ridder

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
12/24
-1.3
44
01/01
-2.2
35
01/08
1.5
63
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
2.5
67
09/24
-10.6
2
10/01
-8.0
8
10/08
9.4
96
10/15
-3.1
28
10/22
5.3
83
W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-43.6
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Titans Defense
Falcons logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14

EPA

EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
25
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Titans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Titans logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19

EPA

EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
13
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
6
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
28
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-8
L
L
U
01/01
1
W
L
U
01/08
13
W
W
O
09/10
14
W
W
U
09/17
1
W
L
O
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-16
L
L
U
10/08
2
W
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-3
L
P
U
12/24
-5
L
L
U
12/29
-14
L
P
U
01/07
-4
L
W
U
09/10
-1
L
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-24
L
L
U
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U