ATLFalcons
0-5
40
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
023
MINVikings
1-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
10
10
10
40
Vikings
0
0
7
16
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
462
369
Total Plays
79
52
Yards / Play
5.8
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.15
Passing Yards
363
337
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.04
Rushing Yards
99
32
Rush Attempts
37
13
Yards / Rush
2.7
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.45
-14.96
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-2.77
-1.87
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-2.43
-2.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model60.7%
Spread Pick
Falcons+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
75.3
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
15
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
27
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
19
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
8
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
6
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U