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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
4-8
40
TBD
FedExField
33°F
6 mph
16
WASCommanders
6-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
33°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
1
27
6
0
34
Commanders
0
0
0
16
16

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
402
292
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
6.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.38
Passing Yards
175
208
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.45
Rushing Yards
227
84
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.81
-16.17
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-22
-29
Sack EPA
-5.26
-7.33
Penalties
2
15
Penalty Yards
18
135
Penalty EPA
-1.96
-9.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-72.9
Home QB Adjustment
-76.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-18.3
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
09/23
3.5
72
09/30
1.1
54
10/07
0.6
51
10/11
-6.4
11
10/22
2.1
63
10/28
-6.7
11
11/12
2.2
64
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-0.1
45
12/02
-5.4
16
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-76.4
Value
Ptile
11/10
2.6
69
11/16
-1.3
41
11/23
0.2
51
11/27
4.0
77
12/07
-5.0
20
12/14
-8.5
7
12/20
5.1
83
12/28
0.3
51
11/22
-4.3
19
11/26
-3.7
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16

EPA

EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
11
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21

EPA

EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
12
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
32
RZ Efficiency
24
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/30
-15
L
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-21
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-7
L
L
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
O
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
3
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
14
W
W
O
10/08
-24
L
L
O
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U
11/04
-24
L
L
O
11/11
13
W
W
U
11/18
-2
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
L
O
12/03
-15
L
L
U