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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 17, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
10-5
19
TBD
FedExField
53°F
1 mph
10
WASCommanders
8-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
53°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
7
0
3
13
Commanders
0
0
3
7
10

Spread

NYG logo
+9

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
332
284
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
4.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.38
Passing Yards
171
246
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.32
Rushing Yards
161
38
Rush Attempts
41
15
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
35%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.70
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-41
Sack EPA
-2.18
-6.71
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
42
42
Penalty EPA
-8.54
-5.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model73.7%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+22.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+46.7
Final Difference
179.0
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
6.5
88
10/23
-1.3
38
11/06
1.8
64
11/14
0.1
49
11/20
1.5
60
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
-3.5
23
12/11
-6.7
9
12/18
0.7
54
12/22
-1.0
41
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.4
59
10/23
5.9
86
10/30
7.7
92
11/13
4.6
82
11/20
7.0
90
11/24
13.6
99
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-1.1
40
12/19
2.0
64
12/24
8.7
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24

EPA

EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
29
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
6
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
30
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/14
1
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
L
U
11/27
14
W
W
U
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
3
W
W
U
12/18
11
W
W
U
12/22
-5
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
0
T
W
O
11/13
6
W
W
O
11/20
18
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
W
O
12/04
-8
L
L
O
12/11
5
W
W
O
12/19
-11
L
L
U
12/24
20
W
W
O