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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ eagles week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-2
7
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
44°F
6 mph
27
PHIEagles
2-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
44°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
0
0
0
7
Eagles
7
4
7
3
21

Spread

PHI logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
247
428
Total Plays
64
76
Yards / Play
3.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.06
Passing Yards
166
270
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.19
Rushing Yards
81
158
Rush Attempts
23
37
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.42
-17.64
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-10
Sack EPA
-5.23
-0.78
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
94
72
Penalty EPA
-13.91
-8.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+30.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Value
Ptile
11/30
-0.6
46
12/07
0.7
54
12/14
4.3
79
12/21
10.4
97
12/28
3.1
72
09/13
-2.9
30
09/20
4.9
82
09/24
5.5
85
10/04
0.9
56
10/11
13.0
100
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Value
Ptile
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
10/13
4.1
78
10/20
0.4
53
09/14
2.5
68
09/20
-2.9
29
09/27
-4.1
20
10/04
-0.5
47
10/11
3.7
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
4
28
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32

EPA

EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
21
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
16
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
22
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
29
W
W
U
12/14
11
W
W
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/28
-8
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
W
O
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/24
11
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
23
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
P
12/28
8
W
W
O
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
7
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
L
U
10/11
22
W
W
O