JAXJaguars
1-2
25
TBD
Paycor Stadium
64°F
6 mph
33
CINBengals
0-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
6
0
12
25
Bengals
3
7
17
6
33
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
505
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
6.7
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.23
Passing Yards
340
300
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.25
Rushing Yards
89
205
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
20%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.12
-6.38
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-4.65
-0.38
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
49
73
Penalty EPA
-4.95
-6.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model51.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
-22.5
Final Difference
6.9
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
26
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30
EPA
EPA / Play
25
30
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
29
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U