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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ cardinals week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
6-4
27
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
24
ARICardinals
3-7
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
7
3
7
7
3
27
Cardinals
1
7
0
10
0
18

Spread

JAX logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
371
326
Total Plays
61
76
Yards / Play
6.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.13
Passing Yards
237
271
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
34/50(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.20
Rushing Yards
134
55
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.18
--
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-19
-44
Sack EPA
-7.79
-10.37
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
53
Penalty EPA
-8.50
-6.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+58.8
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
-32.8
Home QB Adjustment
-40.8
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-1.9
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
09/07
-2.2
35
09/14
-0.5
46
09/21
-4.9
18
09/28
0.5
55
10/06
5.0
84
10/12
-2.6
32
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.7
63
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.8
57
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-40.8
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.6
30
09/15
-4.7
18
09/19
-7.3
7
09/29
-8.3
4
10/06
-4.6
19
10/12
2.1
65
10/19
0.1
52
11/03
-0.2
49
11/09
-1.6
39
11/16
9.7
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25

EPA

EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
14
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
8
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
26
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
22
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-4
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
L
O
09/21
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-1
L
L
O
10/12
-4
L
W
O
10/19
-4
L
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-19
L
L
O