nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-1
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
13
HOUTexans
0-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
9
12
Texans
3
3
0
7
13

Spread

JAX logo
+7

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
281
263
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
178
137
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.20
Rushing Yards
103
126
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.68
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-35
-22
Sack EPA
-10.36
-5.33
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
70
47
Penalty EPA
-8.45
-6.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+128.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-121.3
Market Regression
-5.9
Final Difference
202.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-121.3
No recent game data available
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Value
Ptile
11/04
2.1
63
11/18
-5.5
15
11/26
6.3
86
12/02
-0.6
42
12/09
0.8
52
12/15
1.9
61
12/23
9.9
95
12/30
1.4
56
01/05
1.0
54
09/09
2.3
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24

EPA

EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
17
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28

EPA

EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
6
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/11
-3
L
P
O
11/18
-4
L
P
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
U
12/06
-21
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
U
12/30
-17
L
L
U
09/08
-14
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
2
W
W
U
11/18
2
W
L
O
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/02
16
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
P
O
12/23
-2
L
L
O
12/30
17
W
W
U
01/05
-14
L
L
U
09/09
-2
L
W
O