JAXJaguars
0-1
12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
0-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
9
12
Texans
3
3
0
7
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
263
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
4.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
178
137
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.20
Rushing Yards
103
126
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.68
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-35
-22
Sack EPA
-10.36
-5.33
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
70
47
Penalty EPA
-8.45
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
Texans-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+240
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+21.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+128.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-121.3
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
204.0
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-121.3
No recent game data available
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U