JAXJaguars
5-3
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
036
HOUTexans
3-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
4
9
0
23
Texans
0
10
0
20
30
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
414
Total Plays
56
72
Yards / Play
3.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
119
284
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.02
Rushing Yards
94
130
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
36%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.11
-11.83
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-39
-10
Sack EPA
-12.67
-2.01
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
90
80
Penalty EPA
-8.14
-11.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model58.7%
Spread Pick
Texans-1.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+30.7
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
-22.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
60.9
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
20
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
23
3
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U