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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
5-3
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
36
HOUTexans
3-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
4
9
0
23
Texans
0
10
0
20
30

Spread

HOU logo
-1

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
213
414
Total Plays
56
72
Yards / Play
3.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
119
284
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.02
Rushing Yards
94
130
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
36%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.11
-11.83
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-39
-10
Sack EPA
-12.67
-2.01
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
90
80
Penalty EPA
-8.14
-11.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model58.5%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+31.3
Base HFA
+43.5
Divisional Adj
-19.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-17.5
Home QB Adjustment
-22.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
+4.5
Final Difference
59.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
11/03
-5.1
16
12/01
-7.2
8
09/07
-2.2
35
09/14
-0.4
46
09/21
-4.9
18
09/28
0.6
56
10/06
5.0
85
10/12
-2.6
33
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.8
64
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-22.8
Value
Ptile
10/30
-6.4
11
11/03
-4.3
22
11/13
-2.6
31
11/20
-9.5
3
12/11
0.3
55
12/18
0.7
57
12/24
-4.1
22
01/01
-2.0
37
01/08
0.5
56
01/05
-4.8
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
3
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
12
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
22
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
5
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
18
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
29
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
7
W
W
U
01/05
-3
L
W
O
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-4
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
20
W
W
O
01/18
-9
L
W
U
09/07
-5
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
L
U
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
26
W
W
U
10/05
34
W
W
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U