JAXJaguars
4-6
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
9 mph
42
TENTitans
5-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
8
9
20
Titans
0
7
28
7
42
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
471
Total Plays
80
52
Yards / Play
4.6
9.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.40
Passing Yards
254
252
Comp/Att
32/50(64%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
14.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.68
Rushing Yards
117
219
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
39%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.55
-10.35
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-7
Sack EPA
-5.19
-5.36
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
104
54
Penalty EPA
-11.44
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+50.4
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
+14.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.9
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
+35.0
Final Difference
100.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U