JAXJaguars
4-8
9
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
5 mph
30
TENTitans
6-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
2
0
7
0
9
Titans
7
9
14
0
30
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
426
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
3.8
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.19
Passing Yards
195
162
Comp/Att
25/43(58%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.09
Rushing Yards
60
264
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
8.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.06
-5.20
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-45
--
Sack EPA
-12.85
-0.86
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
67
30
Penalty EPA
-6.98
-1.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+85.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-79.1
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-79.1
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U