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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bengals week 8, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
0-7
39
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
8 mph
38
CINBengals
3-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
13
3
23
39
Bengals
10
14
7
7
38

Spread

NYJ logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
506
398
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
7.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.33
Passing Yards
--
217
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.09
Rushing Yards
256
181
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
6.7
7.9
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.53
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-1.81
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
25
15
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-1.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.0
Home QB Adjustment
-69.4
Away QB Adjustment
-17.4
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
108.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.9
62
09/29
6.3
86
10/06
-1.9
35
10/13
0.8
53
09/07
7.7
93
09/14
-6.7
9
09/29
8.4
95
10/05
0.9
57
10/12
-13.1
0
10/19
-8.1
5
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-69.4
Value
Ptile
11/03
-7.3
7
11/10
-3.1
27
12/29
0.3
50
01/05
-3.6
24
09/07
-1.1
41
09/14
-3.9
24
09/21
-6.8
8
09/28
-11.6
1
10/12
2.8
71
10/16
6.0
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jets logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
31
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32

EPA

EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
24
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Bengals logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27

EPA

EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
21
31
EPA / Rush
10
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
4
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-26
L
L
O
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O
09/14
-20
L
L
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
18
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
L
U
09/07
1
W
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
O
09/21
-38
L
L
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/05
-13
L
L
O
10/12
-9
L
W
O
10/16
2
W
W
O