NYJJets
0-7
39
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
8 mph
38
CINBengals
3-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
13
3
23
39
Bengals
10
14
7
7
38
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
506
398
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
7.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.33
Passing Yards
--
217
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.09
Rushing Yards
256
181
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
6.7
7.9
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-1.81
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
25
15
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-1.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.0
Home QB Adjustment
-69.4
Away QB Adjustment
-17.4
Market Regression
-3.6
Final Difference
109.7
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-69.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
16
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
29
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U