NYJJets
7-9
6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
9 mph
11
MIADolphins
8-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
3
6
Dolphins
0
3
3
3
9
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
187
302
Total Plays
53
64
Yards / Play
3.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
140
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.23
Rushing Yards
38
162
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
1.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
17
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-1.08
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
54
47
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-4.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
Jets+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-186.1
Home QB Adjustment
-151.6
Away QB Adjustment
+34.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
2.7
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+34.5
S. Thompson
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-151.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U