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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ panthers week 15, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
7-6
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
5 mph
31
CARPanthers
9-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
3
7
24
Panthers
7
3
14
7
31

Spread

CAR logo
-3

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
384
387
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.15
Passing Yards
264
236
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.40
Rushing Yards
120
151
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
24
29
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.06
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-6.49
-2.16
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
28
40
Penalty EPA
-3.96
+2.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+66.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-1.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Value
Ptile
01/01
9.2
95
01/08
5.2
83
01/15
2.7
70
01/22
4.8
82
09/10
-0.1
51
09/17
2.5
70
09/24
1.5
64
09/28
3.1
75
10/08
2.3
69
10/15
-5.5
17
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
10/01
8.9
95
10/08
6.6
90
10/12
-1.9
39
10/22
-6.1
15
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74
11/13
13.0
100
11/26
-4.5
22
12/03
3.4
78
12/10
-1.4
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Packers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
2
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Panthers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
18

EPA

EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
15
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/08
4
W
W
O
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-9
L
L
U
11/06
-13
L
L
O
11/12
7
W
W
O
11/19
-23
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
W
O
12/03
6
W
W
O
12/10
6
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/12
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/03
-10
L
L
O
12/10
7
W
W
O