GBPackers
7-6
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
5 mph
31
CARPanthers
9-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
3
7
24
Panthers
7
3
14
7
31
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
387
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.15
Passing Yards
264
236
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.40
Rushing Yards
120
151
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
29
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.06
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-6.49
-2.16
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
28
40
Penalty EPA
-3.96
+2.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+65.7
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-1.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U