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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ 49ers week 1, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
87°F
8 mph
3
SF49ers
-
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
87°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
6
10
0
23
49ers
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

CAR logo
-5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
287
217
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
4.6
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.45
Passing Yards
--
166
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.44
Rushing Yards
116
51
Rush Attempts
38
15
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
54%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.18
-11.64
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-11.62
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
40
74
Penalty EPA
-4.15
-9.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+78.9
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+6.9
Final Difference
-113.0
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75
11/17
-5.7
13
11/27
-0.5
44
12/11
-6.4
10
12/19
0.6
54
12/24
-8.0
5
01/01
-8.0
5
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
11/29
-1.1
43
12/06
3.2
75
12/13
-8.2
3
01/03
-3.0
28
01/09
-14.7
0
09/25
4.0
78
10/02
4.3
81
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
0.4
52
10/20
-6.1
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Panthers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
25
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
32
RZ Efficiency
21
26
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
49ers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3

EPA

EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
17
17
EPA / Rush
9
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
28
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-33
L
L
O
12/11
12
W
W
U
12/19
11
W
W
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-1
L
W
U
SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
11/06
-18
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
W
U
11/20
-13
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
P
O
12/04
-20
L
L
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/18
-28
L
L
O
12/24
1
W
W
O
01/01
-2
L
W
O