CARPanthers
-
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
87°F
8 mph
3
SF49ers
-
TBD
Levi's Stadium
87°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
6
10
0
23
49ers
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
217
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
4.6
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.45
Passing Yards
--
166
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.44
Rushing Yards
116
51
Rush Attempts
38
15
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
54%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.18
-11.64
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-11.62
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
40
74
Penalty EPA
-4.15
-9.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+77.9
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
-113.5
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
25
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
32
RZ Efficiency
21
26
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
17
17
EPA / Rush
9
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
28
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U