CARPanthers
1-0
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
0
14
24
Falcons
3
14
7
7
31
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
439
442
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
6.8
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.24
Passing Yards
318
--
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.47
Rushing Yards
121
170
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.25
-2.95
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.35
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-6.16
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
Panthers+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
107.6
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
4
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
28
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
24
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U