CARPanthers
11-4
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
022
ATLFalcons
9-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
0
3
10
Falcons
7
0
6
9
22
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
371
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.01
Passing Yards
161
311
Comp/Att
14/34(41%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.12
Rushing Yards
87
60
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.62
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
-6
Sack EPA
-2.58
-2.06
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
60
Penalty EPA
-4.15
-6.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-39.6
Home QB Adjustment
-21.4
Away QB Adjustment
+18.2
Market Regression
+44.4
Final Difference
109.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U