CARPanthers
4-4
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
15 mph
13
GBPackers
5-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
6
3
16
Packers
0
6
0
7
13
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
369
Total Plays
54
63
Yards / Play
4.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.00
Passing Yards
102
265
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.16
Rushing Yards
163
104
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.61
-9.83
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
+0.17
-1.59
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-5.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+253
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+34.4
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
297.5
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
25
20
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
26
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
13
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
4
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U