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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 12, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-5
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
34
NOSaints
8-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
9
9
7
31
Saints
14
3
14
3
34

Spread

CAR logo
+10

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
351
418
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
5.0
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.16
Passing Yards
230
300
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.23
Rushing Yards
121
118
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+3.62
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-11
Sack EPA
-3.08
-2.53
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
25
123
Penalty EPA
-1.98
-12.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+35.4
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
-22.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.2
Time Adj
-8.8
Net QB Adjustment
+91.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-89.3
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

K. Allen headshot

K. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-89.3
Value
Ptile
12/30
5.6
83
09/22
4.7
82
09/29
-2.6
34
10/06
-3.8
26
10/13
-0.8
47
10/27
-15.5
0
11/03
-4.1
25
11/10
-0.5
49
11/17
-11.8
2
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71
01/13
2.2
64
01/20
-0.1
45
09/09
6.0
87
09/15
-7.2
10
10/27
8.7
94
11/10
-5.2
19
11/17
3.9
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29

EPA

EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
14
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
13
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-3
L
L
O
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/22
18
W
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-26
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
O
09/29
2
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
U
10/20
11
W
W
O
10/27
22
W
W
U
11/10
-17
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O