CARPanthers
5-5
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
034
NOSaints
8-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
6
9
9
7
31
Saints
14
3
14
3
34
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
418
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
5.0
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.16
Passing Yards
230
300
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.23
Rushing Yards
121
118
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+3.62
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-26
-11
Sack EPA
-3.08
-2.53
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
25
123
Penalty EPA
-1.98
-12.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+35.4
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
-22.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.2
Time Adj
-8.8
Net QB Adjustment
+91.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-89.3
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-89.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
14
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U