NEPatriots
7-2
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
46°F
4 mph
34
TENTitans
4-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
46°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
0
0
10
Titans
17
7
3
7
34
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
385
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
4.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.20
Passing Yards
244
235
Comp/Att
23/43(53%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.42
Rushing Yards
40
150
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
20%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-14
Sack EPA
-4.40
-3.77
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
31
35
Penalty EPA
-4.29
-2.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model67.8%
Spread Pick
Titans+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
-129.2
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
3
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
6
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
6
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U