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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-6
7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
10 mph
10
DENBroncos
7-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
0
0
0
7
Broncos
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

OAK logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
188
220
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
3.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.47
Passing Yards
114
136
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.64
-0.38
Rushing Yards
74
84
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
10
10
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.20
-3.94
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-10.92
-6.30
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
83
78
Penalty EPA
-11.00
-10.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+15.8
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
12/26
-2.8
30
01/05
5.7
83
09/07
0.7
57
09/15
-10.7
2
09/21
1.3
60
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8
10/12
-4.2
22
10/19
-5.7
14
11/02
4.7
82
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
09/21
-1.9
37
09/29
7.0
92
10/05
1.5
61
10/12
0.4
55
10/19
7.1
92
10/26
3.6
76
11/02
0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
10
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18

EPA

EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
13
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
15
W
W
U
01/05
-14
L
L
O
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/15
-11
L
L
U
09/21
-17
L
L
O
09/28
-1
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
U
10/12
10
W
W
U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/05
4
W
W
U
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/02
3
W
W
U