OAKRaiders
2-6
7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
10 mph
10
DENBroncos
7-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
0
0
0
7
Broncos
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
188
220
Total Plays
58
57
Yards / Play
3.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.47
Passing Yards
114
136
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.64
-0.38
Rushing Yards
74
84
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
10
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.20
-3.94
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-10.92
-6.30
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
83
78
Penalty EPA
-11.00
-10.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+15.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
32
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
28
1
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
32
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U