OAKRaiders
1-1
24
TBD
FedExField
72°F
6 mph
41
WASCommanders
1-1
TBD
FedExField
72°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
0
14
24
Commanders
7
13
8
7
35
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
400
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
5.6
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.31
Passing Yards
263
199
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.51
Rushing Yards
93
201
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.88
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-28
-8
Sack EPA
-6.81
-1.45
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
54
54
Penalty EPA
-10.52
-7.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model58.4%
Spread Pick
Commanders-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-50.9
Home QB Adjustment
-51.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
-30.2
Final Difference
58.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-51.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Commanders Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U