OAKRaiders
-
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
4 mph
13
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
0
10
3
20
Patriots
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
336
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
333
276
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.01
Rushing Yards
56
60
Rush Attempts
24
18
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.48
-3.68
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-29
-11
Sack EPA
-5.77
-4.74
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
77
70
Penalty EPA
-9.21
-6.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+72.8
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
2
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
32
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
28
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U