OAKRaiders
1-0
26
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
77°F
4 mph
17
PITSteelers
1-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
77°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
6
7
10
26
Steelers
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
331
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
6.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.03
Passing Yards
373
292
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.07
Rushing Yards
52
39
Rush Attempts
25
14
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.88
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-3
Sack EPA
-2.95
-2.01
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-5.58
-3.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+83.0
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+23.6
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
19
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
32
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U