LARRams
1-0
27
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
024
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
3
7
10
27
Colts
0
6
8
4
18
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
356
Total Plays
60
66
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.03
Passing Yards
270
247
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.12
Rushing Yards
101
109
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
60%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.12
-7.38
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.57
-8.97
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.6
Net QB Adjustment
-23.1
Home QB Adjustment
-15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
12
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Colts Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
6
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
2
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U