BALRavens
12-5
3
TBD
New Era Field
34°F
13 mph
17
BUFBills
14-3
TBD
New Era Field
34°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
0
0
3
Bills
3
0
8
0
11
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
220
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
4.7
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.20
Passing Yards
190
188
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.03
Rushing Yards
150
32
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
41%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.80
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-32
-18
Sack EPA
-6.19
-3.39
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-5.78
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model51.0%
Spread Pick
Ravens+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,694
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.5
Home QB Adjustment
+46.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
7.2
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+46.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
21
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
16
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Bills Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
9
27
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
12
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-2-1
O/U