BALRavens
8-6
22
TBD
StubHub Center
60°F
5 mph
10
LACChargers
11-3
TBD
StubHub Center
60°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
3
10
0
16
Chargers
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
198
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
5.9
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.49
Passing Yards
202
147
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.53
Rushing Yards
159
51
Rush Attempts
36
16
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-14.58
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-2
-34
Sack EPA
-2.68
-7.70
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
40
69
Penalty EPA
-3.30
-7.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.9
Net QB Adjustment
+30.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-29.3
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-29.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
2
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U