BALRavens
6-4
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
14 mph
19
PITSteelers
10-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
36°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
0
0
7
14
Steelers
0
6
0
7
13
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
334
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.10
Passing Yards
90
--
Comp/Att
9/18(50%)
36/51(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.83
-0.09
Rushing Yards
129
68
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
1
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-4.68
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.21
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
86
40
Penalty EPA
-8.18
-3.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
Ravens+10.5
Expected Value
+13.4%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+134.7
Home QB Adjustment
+20.7
Away QB Adjustment
-114.0
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
214.1
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-114.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
1
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
4
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
10
RZ Efficiency
8
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U