NOSaints
2-2
33
TBD
FedExField
70°F
12 mph
22
WASCommanders
2-2
TBD
FedExField
70°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
13
0
13
33
Commanders
6
7
3
6
22
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
373
Total Plays
55
77
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.08
Passing Yards
271
242
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
20/42(48%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.32
Rushing Yards
98
131
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.04
-6.78
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-6.59
-2.39
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
37
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-3.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+64.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-64.5
Home QB Adjustment
-79.1
Away QB Adjustment
-14.5
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-79.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
28
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
27
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U