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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ falcons week 3, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
1-1
43
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
37
ATLFalcons
1-1
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
7
9
7
14
6
43
Falcons
7
7
7
16
0
37

Spread

NO logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
534
411
Total Plays
77
62
Yards / Play
6.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.19
Passing Yards
391
363
Comp/Att
39/49(80%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.59
Rushing Yards
143
48
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
32
24
Passing 1st downs
19
19
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.96
-4.95
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
120
54
Penalty EPA
-14.21
-8.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-66.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
11/26
0.8
58
12/03
2.0
67
12/07
1.8
66
12/17
4.1
81
12/24
-1.2
44
12/31
1.3
62
01/07
5.2
85
01/14
2.0
67
09/09
13.4
99
09/16
2.9
69
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
11/26
6.0
88
12/03
-1.7
40
12/07
-6.3
15
12/18
0.5
55
12/24
-3.0
31
12/31
4.1
81
01/06
-0.3
49
01/13
-1.5
42
09/06
-7.6
9
09/16
10.3
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
13
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
28
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
24
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
11
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-6
L
L
U
12/03
10
W
W
O
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/17
12
W
L
O
12/24
10
W
W
U
12/31
-7
L
L
O
01/07
5
W
L
O
01/14
-5
L
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
12/24
-10
L
L
U
12/31
12
W
W
U
01/06
13
W
W
U
01/13
-5
L
L
U
09/06
-6
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
O