NOSaints
1-1
43
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
037
ATLFalcons
1-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Saints
7
9
7
14
6
43
Falcons
7
7
7
16
0
37
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
534
411
Total Plays
77
62
Yards / Play
6.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.19
Passing Yards
391
363
Comp/Att
39/49(80%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.59
Rushing Yards
143
48
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
24
Passing 1st downs
19
19
Rushing 1st downs
11
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.96
-4.95
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
120
54
Penalty EPA
-14.21
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-66.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
28
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U