NOSaints
1-0
7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
83°F
4 mph
26
CARPanthers
1-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
83°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
7
7
Panthers
7
10
0
9
26
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
128
383
Total Plays
43
73
Yards / Play
3.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.01
Passing Yards
80
294
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.85
+0.29
Rushing Yards
48
89
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
28
Passing 1st downs
3
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
18%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.30
-6.26
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-8.46
-3.69
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
115
49
Penalty EPA
-10.87
-0.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
Saints-3.0
Expected Value
+7.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-157
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,658
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
-115.2
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U