NOSaints
12-5
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
029
MINVikings
13-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
7
17
24
Vikings
10
7
0
12
29
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
403
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.02
Passing Yards
278
308
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.11
Rushing Yards
80
95
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
22%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.51
-5.74
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-2.38
-3.75
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
97
--
Penalty EPA
-13.45
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+155
Home nfelo
1,706
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+72.1
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.9
Home QB Adjustment
-21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
31
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Vikings
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U