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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ panthers week 15, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
10-3
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
5 mph
24
CARPanthers
5-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Seahawks
13
7
3
7
30
Panthers
0
7
3
14
24

Spread

SEA logo
CAR logo
6
P

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
428
414
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.05
Passing Yards
274
269
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.57
-0.10
Rushing Yards
154
145
Rush Attempts
34
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.87
-13.26
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-0.92
-1.90
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+89.5
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.6
Time Adj
+25.5
Net QB Adjustment
-62.1
Home QB Adjustment
-65.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-104.8
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
09/29
-1.1
46
10/03
8.8
94
10/13
5.8
86
10/20
-1.8
40
10/27
-2.6
34
11/03
9.6
96
11/11
0.9
59
11/24
-8.4
8
12/02
1.0
60
12/08
-5.0
20
K. Allen headshot

K. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-65.7
Value
Ptile
09/29
-2.6
34
10/06
-3.8
26
10/13
-0.8
47
10/27
-15.5
0
11/03
-4.1
25
11/10
-0.5
49
11/17
-11.8
2
11/24
1.7
65
12/01
-3.0
31
12/08
-3.5
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29

EPA

EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
19
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22

EPA

EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
28
18
EPA / Rush
20
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
30
9
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
14
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
17
W
W
U
10/03
1
W
L
O
10/13
4
W
W
O
10/20
-14
L
L
U
10/27
7
W
L
U
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/24
8
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
O
12/08
-16
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
6
W
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-26
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
W
O
12/01
-8
L
L
O
12/08
-20
L
L
O