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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. seahawks @ steelers week 6, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SEA logo
SEASeahawks
2-3
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
6 mph
23
PITSteelers
2-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Seahawks
0
0
14
6
0
20
Steelers
0
14
3
3
3
23

Spread

SEA logo
+5.5

Total

PUSH
43
P

Game Statistics

General
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
309
345
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.04
Passing Yards
165
226
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
29/40(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.03
Rushing Yards
144
119
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.82
-5.54
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-44
-3
Sack EPA
-11.54
-5.54
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
38
Penalty EPA
-3.95
-6.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model59.8%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
-22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+53.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-62.7
Market Regression
-5.1
Final Difference
69.3
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-62.7
Value
Ptile
10/12
-4.9
20
10/16
0.4
52
10/26
-12.0
1
12/01
-7.2
10
12/07
-0.9
43
12/14
-2.9
30
12/21
-2.1
35
12/28
10.2
96
10/23
-4.5
17
12/03
-2.3
36
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Value
Ptile
12/07
2.9
66
12/13
-4.2
18
12/21
-6.4
10
12/27
7.1
89
01/10
7.3
90
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Seahawks logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
6
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
3
11
Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Steelers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
19
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
21
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
37
W
W
U
12/20
5
W
L
U
12/27
11
W
W
U
01/03
3
W
L
O
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/12
12
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-13
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/07
-9
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
01/03
-2
L
W
O
01/10
-11
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O