PITSteelers
4-1
31
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
5 mph
33
CINBengals
2-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
7
14
31
Bengals
0
17
3
13
33
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
470
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.29
Passing Yards
--
328
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.32
Rushing Yards
147
142
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
7.3
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.32
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
70%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.21
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.07
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-5.63
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+36.7
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-92.7
Home QB Adjustment
-82.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-124.7
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-82.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
16
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
5
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U