PITSteelers
-
23
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
17 mph
16
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
6
11
17
Bills
3
7
0
6
16
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
371
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
4.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
177
254
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.12
Rushing Yards
75
117
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.71
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-16
Sack EPA
-3.87
-6.70
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
32
81
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-8.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+60.5
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
135.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
32
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U