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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ bills week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
-
23
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
17 mph
16
BUFBills
-
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
73°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
6
11
17
Bills
3
7
0
6
16

Spread

PIT logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
252
371
Total Plays
55
79
Yards / Play
4.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.16
Passing Yards
177
254
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.12
Rushing Yards
75
117
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.71
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-16
Sack EPA
-3.87
-6.70
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
32
81
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-8.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+60.6
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
135.8
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
11/01
0.8
50
11/08
8.0
92
11/15
6.8
87
11/22
1.8
57
12/02
3.1
67
12/07
2.9
66
12/13
-4.2
18
12/21
-6.4
10
12/27
7.1
89
01/10
7.3
90
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
11/15
2.1
59
11/29
-1.5
34
12/07
12.2
98
12/13
3.2
68
12/19
13.0
99
12/28
13.5
99
01/03
2.1
59
01/09
9.2
95
01/16
-1.3
35
01/24
3.1
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Steelers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16

EPA

EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
32
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bills logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
1
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
2
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
5
W
L
U
11/15
26
W
W
O
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
01/03
-2
L
W
O
01/10
-11
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-2
L
W
O
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
O
12/13
11
W
W
U
12/19
29
W
W
O
12/28
29
W
W
P
01/03
30
W
W
O
01/09
3
W
L
O
01/16
14
W
W
U
01/24
-14
L
L
O