PITSteelers
11-4
13
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
24 mph
9
CLEBrowns
4-11
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
10
0
13
Browns
0
6
3
0
9
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
33
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
240
Total Plays
78
58
Yards / Play
4.6
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.21
Passing Yards
199
168
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
16/41(39%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.33
Rushing Yards
161
72
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.73
-4.33
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-22
-9
Sack EPA
-3.27
-2.76
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
37
40
Penalty EPA
-8.75
-4.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-163
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+33.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+33.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
18
30
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
24
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
29
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U