HOUTexans
7-1
13
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
8 mph
6
CHIBears
7-1
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
3
13
Bears
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
249
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
3.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.46
Passing Yards
88
--
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.66
Rushing Yards
127
115
Rush Attempts
35
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
8
Passing 1st downs
6
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
21%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-6.98
-13.17
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.82
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
+3.71
-4.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-0.1
Final Difference
1.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
18
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U