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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bears week 10, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
7-1
13
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
8 mph
6
CHIBears
7-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
54°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
3
13
Bears
0
3
3
0
6

Spread

HOU logo
+1

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
215
249
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
3.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.46
Passing Yards
88
--
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.66
Rushing Yards
127
115
Rush Attempts
35
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
13
8
Passing 1st downs
6
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
21%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-6.98
-13.17
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.82
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
+3.71
-4.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
+1.4
Final Difference
8.7
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
11/06
-1.5
40
11/13
3.6
75
09/09
1.3
59
09/16
1.6
60
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
3.3
71
10/08
-0.9
43
10/14
-6.6
11
10/21
3.0
69
11/04
2.9
68
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
11/13
-3.8
26
11/20
5.3
83
09/09
1.2
57
09/13
-17.7
0
09/23
-4.6
20
10/01
4.2
75
10/07
3.1
70
10/22
-5.1
18
10/28
-6.7
10
11/04
3.0
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Texans logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Bears logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6

EPA

EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
18
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
21
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/08
6
W
L
U
10/14
-18
L
L
O
10/21
30
W
W
O
11/04
12
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-14
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/23
17
W
W
U
10/01
16
W
W
O
10/07
38
W
W
O
10/22
6
W
L
U
10/28
1
W
L
O
11/04
31
W
W
O