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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chiefs week 6, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
3-2
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
2 mph
24
KCChiefs
4-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
20
0
8
31
Chiefs
17
0
7
0
24

Spread

HOU logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
474
309
Total Plays
84
47
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
256
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.05
Rushing Yards
192
53
Rush Attempts
41
11
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
35
20
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.95
-10.17
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-5.88
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
70
79
Penalty EPA
-8.05
-9.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+73.5
Base HFA
+54.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
124.0
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Value
Ptile
12/09
0.8
52
12/15
1.9
61
12/23
9.9
95
12/30
1.4
56
01/05
1.0
54
09/09
2.3
68
09/15
-5.8
16
09/22
7.8
93
09/29
-5.3
18
10/06
18.4
100
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.4
72
12/23
5.8
84
12/30
1.0
53
01/12
0.2
48
01/20
1.2
55
09/08
10.6
98
09/15
10.0
97
09/22
10.0
96
09/29
4.6
82
10/06
-1.2
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
6
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
7
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
14
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
11
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
P
O
12/23
-2
L
L
O
12/30
17
W
W
U
01/05
-14
L
L
U
09/09
-2
L
W
O
09/15
1
W
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
-6
L
L
U
10/06
21
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-1
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
32
W
W
U
01/12
18
W
W
U
01/20
-6
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
5
W
W
O
09/29
4
W
L
O
10/06
-6
L
L
U