HOUTexans
3-2
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
2 mph
24
KCChiefs
4-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
20
0
8
31
Chiefs
17
0
7
0
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
309
Total Plays
84
47
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
256
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.05
Rushing Yards
192
53
Rush Attempts
41
11
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
35
20
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.95
-10.17
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-5.88
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
70
79
Penalty EPA
-8.05
-9.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-3.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+72.7
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
124.0
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
14
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U