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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jets week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
9-4
29
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
8 mph
22
NYJJets
4-9
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
13
0
13
29
Jets
3
6
6
7
22

Spread

HOU logo
NYJ logo
7
P

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
286
318
Total Plays
51
72
Yards / Play
5.6
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
239
228
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.15
Rushing Yards
47
90
Rush Attempts
17
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
11%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.83
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-55
-25
Sack EPA
-8.96
-2.84
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-5.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+47.7
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
-5.7
Final Difference
-164.6
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
7.0
89
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29
10/25
10.0
96
11/04
2.1
63
11/18
-5.5
15
11/26
6.3
86
12/02
-0.6
42
12/09
0.8
52
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-1.3
37
09/16
-2.7
30
09/20
-9.8
3
09/30
-3.9
22
10/07
-1.2
38
10/14
2.3
65
10/21
-9.7
4
10/28
-2.2
32
11/04
-13.9
1
12/09
0.1
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Texans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26

EPA

EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
21
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Jets logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4

EPA

EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
29
10
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
30
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U
10/25
19
W
W
O
11/04
2
W
W
U
11/18
2
W
L
O
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/02
16
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/07
18
W
W
O
10/14
8
W
W
O
10/21
-20
L
L
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/11
-31
L
L
O
11/25
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-4
L
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O