HOUTexans
9-4
29
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
8 mph
22
NYJJets
4-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
13
0
13
29
Jets
3
6
6
7
22
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
318
Total Plays
51
72
Yards / Play
5.6
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
239
228
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.15
Rushing Yards
47
90
Rush Attempts
17
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
11%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.83
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-55
-25
Sack EPA
-8.96
-2.84
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Jets+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
-5.8
Final Difference
-164.7
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
25
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
29
10
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
30
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U