HOUTexans
8-5
24
TBD
Nissan Stadium
45°F
4 mph
21
TENTitans
8-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
45°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
14
0
10
24
Titans
0
0
7
14
21
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
432
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
5.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.06
Passing Yards
234
269
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.03
Rushing Yards
140
163
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.08
-10.72
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-1.37
-1.63
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
27
30
Penalty EPA
-2.53
-5.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+26.1
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
-21.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+27.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
13
16
EPA / Rush
6
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
5
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
15
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
3
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U