TENTitans
5-4
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
038
INDColts
4-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
0
7
10
Colts
7
17
7
7
38
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
397
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
4.5
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.34
Passing Yards
176
--
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.54
Rushing Yards
87
102
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.34
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-7.93
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
112
60
Penalty EPA
-15.25
-4.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+62.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+29.2
Home QB Adjustment
+36.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
-43.1
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+36.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
16
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
7
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U