TENTitans
3-4
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
014
DALCowboys
3-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
14
7
7
28
Cowboys
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
297
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.25
Passing Yards
215
225
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.19
Rushing Yards
125
72
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
79%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.71
-10.17
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-25
-18
Sack EPA
-9.37
-8.72
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
52
Penalty EPA
-1.67
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+49.7
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Cowboys Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
10
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
26
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U